Australia’s risk of an economic downturn jumped to the highest level since the pandemic, a Bloomberg survey showed, with the Reserve Bank now expected to raise interest rates again to try to gain control over inflation.
The chances of a recession in the next 12 months climbed to 50% this month, up from 35% in May, Friday’s survey showed. Outside the first half of 2020, when Australia’s economy was driven into reverse by Covid lockdowns, the nation has avoided a recession for 32 years.
Downturns Down Under are traditionally triggered by excessive central bank tightening and a poll of 20 analysts showed a median estimate of one more RBA hike in August for a cash rate to 4.35%, a level last seen in late 2011.
Read the full story on Bloomberg here.